View Desktop Version
Howard's Blog
Listing of Previous Blogs

Iran Expected to Retaliate

Last week an Israeli air strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria killed a top Iranian Revolutionary Guard general and several other members of the Iranian military. Iran has been threatening to retaliate against Israel for this attack.

Israel Defense Forces air defenses are at high alert and are expecting an Iranian attack by some combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. The IDF's Iron Dome missile defense system is perhaps the best of it's kind in the world.

It remains to be seen when and how this retaliation will take place. The United States Government has been warning for at least two days that this retaliation is expected in the next couple of days. That means today... but nothing seems to be happening. What gives?

The US is urging the Iranians to use caution so that a greatly expanded war does not break out across the Middle East.

Here are some possible reasons why Iran has not yet retaliated against Israel:

  • Their defense establishment is so tied up in suppling arms to both the Houthi rebels in Yemen and to Russian forces fighting Ukraine and has too few military assets for an effective strike against Israel.
  • They are unwilling to show the world that their ballistic missile program is not sufficient to penetrate the Iron Dome.
  • Although their military drones are very effective for both the Russians and the Houthis when deployed near the intended targets, they have limited range. Iranian drones cannot be deployed from Iranian territory for battle over Israel, hundreds of miles away. Iranian military commanders are unwilling to move sufficient forces from Iran to Lebanon where they could strike Israel.
  • They are also aware that launching drone attacks from Lebanon will be viewed as a threat to United States Navy ships in the Eastern Mediterranean. They don't want to provoke a US attack on Iran.
The Iranian leaders, both of the civilian government and the military, are really smart people. They fully understand their capabilities, their strengths and their weaknesses. They understand that they have few allies in the world. There are no foreign militaries who are prepared to help them out. They are a major country on the world stage, but they stand alone. They are more than willing to commit military assets into insurgencies in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. But they fully understand that they do not have the capablity to fight a long-distance air war against either Israel, the United States or both.

IMHO, look for a precision drone strike against an Israeli diplomatic mission in Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates.