I made a wager with a Trump supporting friend of mine this week. He isn't a typical Magabilly Trump supporter, he is quite intelligent. Some exist, who knew? Anyway, the crux of the wager is that if Trump wins the economy will tank... The United States will be in a recession in 2025.

Of course, if this happens... Trump will deny that it is a recession and that at the same time it is Kamala Harris's fault.. After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics which reports all such things, like all federal government entities, hates Trump and will lie about him at every opportunty. Duh!

The first thing that Trump will probably do as President this time, since he didn't last time, is to cancel any Executive Orders issued by earlier Presidents which provided any type of status or special rights for Dreamers. Dreamers are people who came into this country without documention as children accompanied by their parents.

He will then have the Justice Department and all available law-enforcement agencies round them up, in advance of some dubious kind of deportation. Although there will be a tremendous push-back for human rights advocates, with the help of MAGA supporting law enforcement agencies he may be able detain thousands. If you believe what Trump says then Listen to what he says. He says that he wants to deport them all.

This action alone could throw the economy into turmoil, stress and likely stall any economic vitality, as these people are removed from the work force. Various realistic estimates indicate that there are over 500,000 Dreamers who will no longer be contributing to the national economy in any kind of positive manner.

In addition, thousands of National Guard members will have to be called up to provide shelter, food, and guards for the Dreamers who will be forced into some sort of camps while they are awaiting deporation. This will remove many thousands more from the workforce... again decreasing economic output.

Decreased economic output means a recession, regardless of the cause... However barbaric the cause.

Further, there will be no deporation for the vast majority who are forced into the camps. These aren't people who legal citizens in any country, not just the United States. Mexico won't take them. Venezuela won't take them. Cuba won't take them. No country will take these people back, accepting them as citizens. They will become the stateless Palestinians of the Western Hemisphere. They will be a perpetual drain on the United States economy.

If Trump wins, I feel pretty safe with this wager.