When the Pandemic Ends - Herd Immunity
It's really quite simple, the pandemic will effectively end in this country when Herd Immunity is achieved.
Per the Oxford English Dictionary --- Herd Immunity is the resistance to the spread of an infectious disease within a population that is based on pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination. The level of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity varies by disease but ranges from 83 to 94 percent
OK - There is only two methods to achieve Herd Immunity and in this country we are now working on both methods. We seemingly are working very hard to achive this by having a higher and higher proportion of the population previously infected. In fact we are the most advanced country in the world in this regard. This is also the easiest method. As a society we are doing very little to slow the spread. But we are doing some things: encouraging physical distancing, encouraging people to wear masks, and to prevent people from mixing (eg closing schools, closing restaurants and bars, limiting or prohibiting attendance at sporting events, and encouraging people to work from home). I haven't seen any evidence that this is actually slowing the spread.
But now we now have several vaccinations available, and more coming soon. The state and local administration of the vaccines is rolling out slowly, but that will pick up as plans are developed and implemented (the slowness of this is a sign of the absolute failure of Operation Warp Speed). By the middle of 2021 vaccinations should be available to all want them.
Once vaccinations are easily and readily available at no or low-cost to all Americans we can begin the real work of achieving Herd Immunity. If we work at it Herd Immunity should be able to end the pandemic in this country by the end of 2021. It won't be easy...we just have to sit back and let everyone else get infected then get over it or die.
Doing the real work will force us to do some easy things like stop wearing masks, open schools, open restaurants (and bars, gyms, theaters, hair salons, museums, art galleries etc). We need to allow 110000 fans into Michigan Stadium and Bryant-Denny Field.
We will also need to do the hard stuff. We will need to allow people to get sick. We need to allow some to die. Especially, we need to take the pressure off of the at-risk medical and emergency services providers. Let them work normal shifts like everyone else. Allow them weekends and mental health days-off. These brave people have worked for almost a year now in a futile effort. Lets let them get their lives back.
Once everyone has an opportunity to receive vaccinations, Covid-19 becomes a preventable disease. It is little different then small pox, polio, and measles... With one important exception. We have established Herd Immunity for small pox, polio and measles. They have become rare, and their rarity allows medical professionals to go to heroic lengths to treat and save the lives of those infected.
Covid-19 is not rare yet. As a society we are kidding ourselves if we think we can provide treatment to those infected and quickly achieve Herd Immunity. Covid-19 is completely preventable. We should, as a society, not extend extreme effort to treat those who have stupidly chosen to ignore the prevention.
As heartless as it sounds (and is) to achieve Herd Immunity as rapidly as possible after the vaccines are widely available we should:
This will prevent needless inconvenience, suffering and death. It will however prehaps create additional suffering and death on those who have chosen to skip the prevention step. Perhaps it will cause additional people to seek prevention.
This may mean that the United States sees more than 1 million Covid-19 deaths in 2021, but I haven't seen any evidence that what we are doing now will prevent these deaths.