Hunkered Down in Bremerton

Howard's Blog January 23, 2020
My take on what is going on this week.

A Sigh of Relief

The election and the age of Trump is over. Reasoning and sanity have restored our great democracy. Trump did make America great again... when he left Washington on January 20. People with intelligence can now rally round President Biden and move forward against some cripling problems.

Number one on the agenda should be to organize and communicate a comprehensive plan to quickly distribute vaccines to all Americans who want them. A naional vaccination czar should be appointed to coordinate with the states and vaccine producers to maximize deliveries to immunization centers and health care providers.

The federal government should know and be able to communicate how much of each vaccine will be made available each week by every approved manufacturer at least three months in advance. The vaccination czar working in conjunction with leaders from each state and territory should allocate and arrange delivery. Each state, territory and district should know how much, where, and when it will be receiving vaccines during the next three months. Make a plan and stick to it. Future allocations can be changed as time progessses but all players need to be informed of changes. This seems like a simple strategy to me.

With this knowledge the states can know how many doses and at what rate they will be able provide the vaccines to local level immunization centers and health care providers. States and local officials will know if and how many temporary immunization centers they will need to provide for and staff to keep the vaccines flowing into arms. The supply of vaccines from the manufacturers is the bottleneck.

The bottleneck should not be at the distribution centers. Not everyone can be immunized next week or next month, but we need the infrastructure and the syringe end of the line and need more information about when we can expect to be at the front of the line.

Right now the news media seem to be creating a panic situation - reporting of long lines at vaccination centers, shortages of vaccines, shortages of everything. We need to slow the panic. What is missing is effective communication about the supply channels. New York City is complaining that they will run out of vaccines by the end of ths week... I really doubt that. Perhaps they don't know how much they will be receiving each week (communication will fix this) and are allowing too many appointments to be made. For drop-by facilities they may need to cut lines off when they exceed the number of doses they have on-hand. Perhaps they should had out admission tickets for that day only. Not everyone can get vaccinated today, tomorrow, this month or next... Everyone needs to know this.

Vaccination eligibility has been opened up to everyone over age 65 plus some over 50. The US takes a census, the government knows how many are in this group and by locality. Someone (I know that I could) should quickly be able to calculate how quickly 50%, 60%, or 75% of this population (and based upon scheduled deliveries from manufacturers) vaccines can be made available to localities. That's what Excel is for. Local governments need to determine how to deliver these quantities as injections within the time frame.

National leaders need to determine and communicate when to open vaccines to a larger population. Will it be when 50% of health care providers and those over age 65 have had an opportunity to receive injections? or 60% or 75%. We need to know on a national basis, every week, where we stand, how close to the front of the line we are.

Howard B. Julien

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Updated January 23, 2021