Hunkered Down in Bremerton

A Post Ukraine Europe??

Russian troops have entered Ukrainian territory, and Russian missile attacks have started. There is now a full-scale war going on in Europe. We are imposing sanctions against Russia, but the United States and NATO will not defend Ukraine with military forces. It's like the cartoon which shows government officials meeting about what to do after a hurricane stikes... the obvious answer... "Send In the Grief Counselers". If sanctions are our response, and they fail, what happens next? Well obviously, and not to be spoken aloud...Ukraine will be part of the Russian Federation. Our response may well be to be to allow Ukrainian olympians who have refugeeed to compete as a team and ban the Russians. Anything more than this will be hard

Putin shows no sign of backing down in the face of sanctions and we all know that his forces can conquer Ukraine if he allows them to do what is necessary to do so. The late Rush Limbaugh used to say that the purpose of the military was to "hurt people and break things"... certainly true for the Russian army. Putin will turn them loose on Kiyv just as Stalin turned the Red Army loose in Berlin in 1945. Whatever rubble is left, whatever buildings and nuclear power plants that are still standing, whatever people that are still alive and still there will become the Russian province of Ukrainia.

Why we are expecting an outcome other than this baffles me. We should be preparing for what comes next.

What comes next is becoming more obvious...Putin wants to re-annex (permanantly into Russia) all countries that are hostile to him and that were part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics....Now simply called Russia. After Ukraine comes Moldova... Easy Pickings. Belarus is next but he would have to turn on his ally President Alexander Lukashenko. Putin may think about this for 30 seconds before doing so.

After Moldova and Belarus it becomes dicey. The other European former USSR countries (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania) are NATO Members. All other NATO members including the United States are committed to defend these minor Baltic states against Russian invasion. Will we...who knows? But we better be ready.

NATO must recognize that the angry bear is moving in again as happened in the mid-1940s. As long as Russia remains in the power of Putin or autocrats like him, NATO must remain vigilant and remember Kiyv.

Sweden and Finland must be allowed to join NATO. All NATO countries need to remember at all times where the existential military threat comes from. It comes from Moscow, not Beijing, not ISIS, not Al Queda... Moscow. Massive concentrations of forward-based weapons and forces need to be placed along the Russia facing borders of Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Constant sorties of interceptor and bomber aircraft need to be flown along the border as a reminder and challenge. The Baltic Sea should become part of NATO. Turkey as a member of NATO should prevent the passage of Russian warships through the Bosphorus Strait... Provactive actions to be sure.

Each NATO member country must maintain minimum levels of staffing,training, and equipment committed to NATO at all times and under NATO command. They need to spend a minimum agreed upon proportion of their gross domestic product on defense. Other NATO nations must enforce this.

It is easier to welcome new nations based upon their promises than it is to expel those who fail to keep their promises. This is not a time for business as usual. Hard things must be accomplished.

Howard B. Julien

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Updated March 5, 2022