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Hunkered Down in Bremerton

The End of Roe vs Wade

It appears as if the United States Supreme Court will overturn the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision. That decision basically said that individual states could not make abortions illegal. The overturn will not make abortions illegal, it will only return to the states their rights to make them illegal. Serveral states have already passed contingent legislation.

Rightly or wrongly the decision will be made and announced. The state based bans will go into effect, requests for injunctions will be filed. In some states injunctions will be granted. Some states will become sanctuaries for women seeking abortions. Some states will try to go after women who have abortions performed in other states. What a mess it will be.

First off what is an abortion? Most of the definitions that I find say that it is a deliberate action to terminate a pregnancy which results in death of the embryo or fetus. A typical Ceasarian or surgical delivery of a baby is certainly a deliberate action to terminate a pregnancy but without the accompanying death. To me the clear difference is that the intention of an abortion is death to the fetus.

So the question is ... Do laws intended to prevent abortions also prevent surgical deliveries. Probably not, unless the intent is death to fetus/baby. If a women opts for a fetus/baby to be delivered surgically with the intent to relinquish custody to the state... is that an abortion? Clearly if the fetus/baby is full term it is an accepted practice in all 50 states.

If the fetus/baby is sufficiently developed for a heart beat to be detected can a surgical procedure be performed to deliver the fetur/baby for parental custody relinquishment? The question hasn't come up yet. I'll bet it will and very soon after any overturn of Roe by the Supreme Courts.

The first tests will be for viable fetuses/babies- "premies". As wards of the state, the states of Mississippi, Arkansas etc will be on the hook for the Neonatal Intensive Care for these "premies". The earlier in the pregnancy, the longer the stay in the NICU and the more intensive the care needed. The American Medical Associations "Journal of Ethics" estimates that NICU stays cost an average of $3500 per day and it is not unusual for costs to top $1 million for a prolonged stay.

This will mean bankruptcy for poor, red states or huge tax increases. Mississippi and Arkansas each reported around 3000 abortions in 2019. At an average cost to the state of $1 million, the average person would be on the hook for over $1000 per year in additional taxes or the states will face bankruptcy. For a familty of 4 that would be $4000 in additional taxes where the per family income averages just over $40000 per year.

Perhaps I meant poor, red, stupid states. States that ban abortion will face huge unexpected consequences.

Howard B. Julien

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Updated May 7, 2022